At the end of January 2008 I predicted that Joomla! 1.5 would superseed Joomla! 1.0 in March 2008. I based myself on the download statistics found on the joomlacode.org.
Let's have a look at the download statistics of the first 4 months of 2008 and see if my prediction turns out to be correct or not.
The below graph is showing the monthly download statistics for both Joomla! 1.0 and 1.5.
Remarks :
- The data for May 2008 is extrapolated from the data available at the moment so it's not a 100% but a good indication.
- For March we are seeing a slightly higher amount of downloads for Joomla! 1.0, this is likely related to the release of Joomla! 1.0.15. at the end of February.
Conclusions :
- Joomla! 1.0 is still holding pretty steady at 200.000 downloads a month.
- Joomla! 1.5 download have spiked after the release of 1.5 stable and climbed from about 100.000 to more then 200.000 downloads a month.
- Overall the release of 1.5 stable has more then doubled the total amount of downloads.
What does this tell us about the uptake of Joomla! 1.5 ? For that we need a graph that shows us the downloads percentage share for both :
Remarks :
- The graph shows a steady 5% increase of 1.5 downloads in regards to 1.0 until February 2008.
- The graph show the percentage share for both technologies is holding steady at 54% for 1.5 and 46% for 1.0.
Based on this data we can indeed conclude that Joomla! 1.5 has superseded Joomla! 1.0. The uptake of 1.5 has been phenomenal, it reached the same amount of downloads as 1.0 almost immediatly after the release of the stable version.
Joomla! 1.0 isn't giving up the fight easily. At the moment both technologies are existing jointly besides each other. It will be interesting to see how this evolves in the coming months.
I believe that the further uptake of 1.5 will be dependant on two key factors :
- An increase in 1.5 native and stable extensions, especially extensions that add key features like events, ecommerce, forums, multi-lingual ...
- An announcement of the end of life of Joomla! 1.0. (For the moment the development working group has stated that Joomla! 1.0 will be maintained as long as needed).
